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Bitcoin atm in chicago

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What is the downside risk that copper traders are so worried about? We think it can be summed up in two words: China and equities. Figure 5: If China Slows, What Will Become of Copper? Rather than cratering as many feared that it would in 2015, China’s growth rate improved in 2016 and 2017 as the Xi Jinping Administration stimulated the economy ahead of his successful bid to secure a second mandate. Figure 7: China’s Yield Curve and Economic Growth. Figure 8: China’s Yield Curve Shape Correlated Strongly with GDP Growth 4-6 Quarters Later.

For the moment, global equity markets remain robust. Some of the markets, however, have become quite pricey and as the world economy moves into a more advanced stage of recovery, the easy monetary policy that has supported the markets will probably come to an end. That said, late stage equity bull markets can be quite powerful. Stocks soared in 1988 and 1989, at end of the 1980s expansion. They did they did even better during the late 1990s and also did well in the later stages of the 2003-2007 expansion. As such, equities could continue to pull copper prices higher despite somewhat stretched valuation levels. 2000 to 2002 and 2007 to 2009.

Figure 9: Copper Usually Correlates Positively with U. If copper does sell off, watch for currencies such as the Australian dollar, the Brazilian real and the Chilean peso which in the past have correlated highly with copper, to find themselves under downward pressure. Weaker emerging market currencies could also increase the downward pressure on China’s forex reserves and could eventually spark a devaluation of the renminbi. Copper prices and ATM options prices behave as if the global economy will continue to perform well.

The skew on options betrays nervousness about downside potential in copper. If China slows in response to monetary tightening and high debt levels, copper prices could come under downward pressure. Equities pose some risk to copper but they aren’t always as highly correlated as one might expect. All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.

Farmers Fret Over Falling Ag Currencies? About the Author Erik Norland is Executive Director and Senior Economist of CME Group. View more reports from Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist of CME Group. Copper prices have recovered from a slump between 2011 and 2015 to head higher, but options are signaling underlying concerns over a possible pullback in record-setting U. China’s economy, the primary market for the red metal. Mitigate risk and hedge against uncertainty with COMEX Copper futures.

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